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Understanding Earthquakes and Their Impacts: Part I | The White House
Understanding Earthquakes and Their Impacts: Part I
Posted by on May 10, 2011 at 10:46 AM EDT
Ed. Note: This is the first of a two-part blog focusing on the science and aftermath of earthquakes. Part I focuses on the science of a high-magnitude earthquake and whether one could happen in the United States. Tomorrow, Part II will focus on What We Can Do About It.
Part I: Could a 9.0 Happen Here?
Four deadly earthquakes in just over a year—Haiti, Chile, New Zealand, and now Japan—have provided sudden reminders of the tectonic forces active beneath our feet. Perhaps more importantly, they serve as reminders that disasters resulting from those earthquakes are not the work of nature alone. Even in the face of such giant forces, societal decisions before and after an earthquake can have a major impact on the amount of damage, lives lost, and other outcomes. So while scientists and engineers share in society’s obligation to help the victims, we have an additional responsibility to learn from these events and share lessons that can be applied to vulnerable communities—not only abroad, but also here in the United States.
To make those wise decisions requires some basic geology. Most people know that the crust of the Earth is broken into about a dozen major sections, or plates, (and a number of smaller ones) that slowly move against one another. And when plates collide, the rock material in the collision zone is strained and eventually either breaks or slips along the boundary, causing an earthquake. Less widely appreciated is that the largest earthquakes occur along plate boundary zones where one plate is driven down beneath another. Most of these “subduction zones” are located around the rim of the Pacific Ocean in what is known as the Ring of Fire, so called because these regions are also particularly prone to volcanic eruptions.
As it turns out, Japan sits on or near the intersection of four of these plates, with the ensuing high risk from earthquakes and volcanoes. The magnitude-9.0 earthquake that occurred on March 11, 2011, was the largest to have struck Japan since seismic recording began 130 years ago and was the fourth-largest earthquake ever recorded worldwide, releasing approximately 1,000 times the energy of the Haiti earthquake of January 2010. In that light it is remarkable that the damage and loss of life was not far greater than it was—a tribute to Japan’s sizable and science-based investments in strict building codes, public preparedness, and earthquake and tsunami early warning systems. In particular, the current estimates of lives lost just from the shaking of this giant earthquake number in the low hundreds. More on this in Part Two of this blog, which we’ll post tomorrow. But it’s important to remember that even as nations begin the humbling process of rethinking certain assumptions about earthquake potential, nuclear safety, and tsunami protection, we must also use the lessons of what went right to redouble ongoing efforts to build resilient communities.
Is this really a problem that the United States has to worry about? The short answer is yes. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, 39 U.S. states have moderate-to-high earthquake hazard, as well as Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Guam, and the Marianas Islands. These states include the ones people think of along the West Coast, but also ones in the Mountain West, the Central United States (where we are this year commemorating the bicentennial of a series of magnitude-7 earthquakes that struck the Mississippi Valley in 1811-12), and the East, where magnitude-7 earthquakes have struck as recently as the 1880s. Over all, annualized earthquake losses in the U.S. are estimated at $5.3 billion.
That figure could be dwarfed, of course, in the event of a magnitude-9 earthquake. And while the exact location, timing, or intensity of earthquakes cannot be predicted, the U.S. West Coast has two subduction zones—the type of plate boundary that is off the coast of Honshu, Japan—capable of magnitude-9 earthquakes. One is offshore of southern Alaska and the other is offshore a length of the Pacific Northwest coast stretching from Vancouver, BC, to Northern California—a region known as “Cascadia.” Earthquakes in southern Alaska produced major tsunamis in 1946, 1957, 1964, and 1965. The Cascadia zone last ruptured in 1700 and has an average recurrence interval of 500-600 years. The subduction zone in the eastern Caribbean has generated magnitude-8 earthquakes as recently as 1946. The 30-year probability of a magnitude-7 or greater earthquake in California is 94%, a number that fortunately drops to 4% for magnitude-8 or greater. Clearly, when it comes to a giant U.S. temblor, it is not a question of “if” but of “when.”
Tomorrow: What We Can Do About It
Tammy Dickinson is a Senior Policy Analyst at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy
David Applegate is Senior Science Advisor for Earthquake & Geologic Hazards at the US Geological Survey
Kuma, Korme, Feyisa and Cheru among the winners as Ethiopian Champs come to a close- iaaf.org
Kuma, Korme, Feyisa and Cheru among the winners as Ethiopian Champs come to a close
Abera Kuma en route to the Ethiopian 5000m title in Addis Ababa (Bizuayehu Wagaw)
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia - African junior 5000m champion Abera Kuma and African championship 1500m finalist Berutkan Feyisa were among the winners on the last day of the 40th Ethiopian Athletics Championships at the Addis Ababa stadium on Sunday (8).
On a day of surprises, little-known athletes Sisay Korme and Tesfaye Cheru picked up unexpected victories in the men’s 3000m Steeplechase and 1500m respectively.
Kuma takes 5000m victory
Bouncing back from his disqualification at the World Cross Country Championships, Kuma was back to what he does best on Sunday as he completed an inspired return to action with victory in the men’s 5000m. Sensing his moment with the absence of Ethiopia’s top 5000m runners, Kuma took control of the race from the onset and held on to the lead for all but one of the twelve-and-half laps before stopping the clock at 13:40.0, the third fastest time ever at the Addis Ababa stadium.
Much more intriguing was the race behind him for second between newcomers Gemechu Edao and Atsedu Tsegaye with the former winning that particular battle in 13:51.0.
“Last year, I was a runner-up and well prepared for this year to get a good result,” said Kuma. “The competition was fine and I am happy to have won it."
Korme stuns favourites in the men’s Steeplechase
While the men’s 5000m pretty much went according to the form book, the men’s 3000m Steeplechase produced perhaps the shock of the championships with Sisay Korme, a runner from the Oromiya region competing in this first national championships, beat pre-race favorites Legesse Lemiso (2005 World youth 2000m Steeplechase champion) and Nahom Mesfin (All-African Games bronze medallist).
The contest was blown wide open before the start with the news that four-time national champion and national record holder Roba Gari had succumbed to a sudden illness and had opted not to start the race. Lemiso and Mesfin exchanged the lead in the opening laps with Korme, virtually unheard off before winning the heats two days earlier, electing to stay behind the leaders.
Mesfin was the first to show signs of uneasiness when he first dropped back from a leading position before dropping out of the contest at the sixth lap. That decisive move gave Korme the que to tuck just behind leader Lemiso before sprinting clear at the bell. He held his ground for a well-deserved victory in 8:39.0. Lemiso received a double-blow when he lost second place to Ammute Minalu who clocked 8:40.3 to Lamiso’s 8:42.9.
“It is a good advantage to get the opportunity provided by the 20 clubs established recently in Oromiya region,” said the race winner. “I am one of the products of that project and it's my debut on the national championships. In the future, I want to be a 5000m runner."
Cheru takes unexpected men's 1500 win
The day of shocks continued in the men’s 1500m when Tesfaye Cheru, 11th in the junior race in Punta Umbria, emerged as the winner on his national championships debut. Pre-race favorite Aman Wete did much of the early leading hitting the front early on and stubbornly keeping the lead until the last 100 metres. At that point, Cheru, who had been drifting between the inside and outside lanes, sprinted away from a chasing pack of five to take victory in 3:38.86 with Deriba Degefa and Wete finishing second and third respectively.
"I am glad to win on my debut of this championship,” said Cheru. “I have been running the 1500m before at regional level. The uniqueness of today's victory is the time I ran and being able to hold off my competitors. I want to keep up training for this event and specialize in it."
Feyisa wins subdued women’s 1500m
With big names like Genzebe Dibaba, Gelete Burka, and Kalkidan Gezhagne giving this event or the championships a miss, Bertukan Feyisa, seventh in the African Championships 1500m race, won comfortably. The 20-year old hit the front at the bell and held on with comfort to win in 4:14.80, a massive six seconds ahead of Genet Tibeso and Feyna Gudato.
"I am the only one who competed this year among the athletes who run it last year,” confirmed the race winner. “I prepared very well and the race was not that much stressful. In the future, I want to get a better time in this distance."
Elshadai Negash (with the assistance of Bizuayehu Wagaw) for the IAAF
Leading Results (May 8):
Men’s 5000m
1. Abera Kuma (Muger) 13:40.0
2. Atsedu Tsegaye (Mosobo) 13:51.0
3. Gemechu Edao (T.D.T.C) 13:54.3
4. Mosenet Geremew (Amhara Region) 13:57.1
5. Mekashaw Eshete (Addis Ababa) 14:07.5
6. Hagos Gebrehiwot (Mesfen Engineering) 14:10.0
Men’s 3000m SC
1. Sisay Korme (Oromiya) 8:39.0
2. Anmute Minalu (T.D.T.C) 8:40.3
3. Legese Lemiso (Defence) 8:42.9
4. Berhan Getahun (Muger) 8:45.0
5. Meresa Kassaye (Mosobo) 8:45.40
6. Abebe Getachew (Amhara Region) 8:45.54
Men’s 1500m
1. Tesfaye Cheru (National) 3:38.86
2. Deriba Degefa (National) 3:39.38
3. Aman Wete (Oromiya Police) 3:39.63
4. Henok Legesse (Federal prisons) 3:39.90
5. Dawit Wolde (Commercial Bank) 3:40.44
6. Teshome Derarsa (Oromiya) 3:41.26
Women’s 1500m
1. Bertukan Feysa (Federal Police) 4:14.80
2. Genet Tibeso (Oromiya) 4:16.28
3. Feyna Gudato (Oromiya Police) 4:17.18
4. Senbera Teferi (Oromiya) 4:20.29
5. Shanko Genemo (Oromiya Police) 4:22.45
6. Berhan Demisse (Tigray Region) 4:23.18
On a day of surprises, little-known athletes Sisay Korme and Tesfaye Cheru picked up unexpected victories in the men’s 3000m Steeplechase and 1500m respectively.
Kuma takes 5000m victory
Bouncing back from his disqualification at the World Cross Country Championships, Kuma was back to what he does best on Sunday as he completed an inspired return to action with victory in the men’s 5000m. Sensing his moment with the absence of Ethiopia’s top 5000m runners, Kuma took control of the race from the onset and held on to the lead for all but one of the twelve-and-half laps before stopping the clock at 13:40.0, the third fastest time ever at the Addis Ababa stadium.
Much more intriguing was the race behind him for second between newcomers Gemechu Edao and Atsedu Tsegaye with the former winning that particular battle in 13:51.0.
“Last year, I was a runner-up and well prepared for this year to get a good result,” said Kuma. “The competition was fine and I am happy to have won it."
Korme stuns favourites in the men’s Steeplechase
While the men’s 5000m pretty much went according to the form book, the men’s 3000m Steeplechase produced perhaps the shock of the championships with Sisay Korme, a runner from the Oromiya region competing in this first national championships, beat pre-race favorites Legesse Lemiso (2005 World youth 2000m Steeplechase champion) and Nahom Mesfin (All-African Games bronze medallist).
The contest was blown wide open before the start with the news that four-time national champion and national record holder Roba Gari had succumbed to a sudden illness and had opted not to start the race. Lemiso and Mesfin exchanged the lead in the opening laps with Korme, virtually unheard off before winning the heats two days earlier, electing to stay behind the leaders.
Mesfin was the first to show signs of uneasiness when he first dropped back from a leading position before dropping out of the contest at the sixth lap. That decisive move gave Korme the que to tuck just behind leader Lemiso before sprinting clear at the bell. He held his ground for a well-deserved victory in 8:39.0. Lemiso received a double-blow when he lost second place to Ammute Minalu who clocked 8:40.3 to Lamiso’s 8:42.9.
“It is a good advantage to get the opportunity provided by the 20 clubs established recently in Oromiya region,” said the race winner. “I am one of the products of that project and it's my debut on the national championships. In the future, I want to be a 5000m runner."
Cheru takes unexpected men's 1500 win
The day of shocks continued in the men’s 1500m when Tesfaye Cheru, 11th in the junior race in Punta Umbria, emerged as the winner on his national championships debut. Pre-race favorite Aman Wete did much of the early leading hitting the front early on and stubbornly keeping the lead until the last 100 metres. At that point, Cheru, who had been drifting between the inside and outside lanes, sprinted away from a chasing pack of five to take victory in 3:38.86 with Deriba Degefa and Wete finishing second and third respectively.
"I am glad to win on my debut of this championship,” said Cheru. “I have been running the 1500m before at regional level. The uniqueness of today's victory is the time I ran and being able to hold off my competitors. I want to keep up training for this event and specialize in it."
Feyisa wins subdued women’s 1500m
With big names like Genzebe Dibaba, Gelete Burka, and Kalkidan Gezhagne giving this event or the championships a miss, Bertukan Feyisa, seventh in the African Championships 1500m race, won comfortably. The 20-year old hit the front at the bell and held on with comfort to win in 4:14.80, a massive six seconds ahead of Genet Tibeso and Feyna Gudato.
"I am the only one who competed this year among the athletes who run it last year,” confirmed the race winner. “I prepared very well and the race was not that much stressful. In the future, I want to get a better time in this distance."
Elshadai Negash (with the assistance of Bizuayehu Wagaw) for the IAAF
Leading Results (May 8):
Men’s 5000m
1. Abera Kuma (Muger) 13:40.0
2. Atsedu Tsegaye (Mosobo) 13:51.0
3. Gemechu Edao (T.D.T.C) 13:54.3
4. Mosenet Geremew (Amhara Region) 13:57.1
5. Mekashaw Eshete (Addis Ababa) 14:07.5
6. Hagos Gebrehiwot (Mesfen Engineering) 14:10.0
Men’s 3000m SC
1. Sisay Korme (Oromiya) 8:39.0
2. Anmute Minalu (T.D.T.C) 8:40.3
3. Legese Lemiso (Defence) 8:42.9
4. Berhan Getahun (Muger) 8:45.0
5. Meresa Kassaye (Mosobo) 8:45.40
6. Abebe Getachew (Amhara Region) 8:45.54
Men’s 1500m
1. Tesfaye Cheru (National) 3:38.86
2. Deriba Degefa (National) 3:39.38
3. Aman Wete (Oromiya Police) 3:39.63
4. Henok Legesse (Federal prisons) 3:39.90
5. Dawit Wolde (Commercial Bank) 3:40.44
6. Teshome Derarsa (Oromiya) 3:41.26
Women’s 1500m
1. Bertukan Feysa (Federal Police) 4:14.80
2. Genet Tibeso (Oromiya) 4:16.28
3. Feyna Gudato (Oromiya Police) 4:17.18
4. Senbera Teferi (Oromiya) 4:20.29
5. Shanko Genemo (Oromiya Police) 4:22.45
6. Berhan Demisse (Tigray Region) 4:23.18
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